William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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A SIGN OF ACQUITTAL – AT 7:15 P.M. ET:  On the first day of the ridiculous impeachment trial of former President Trump, the Senate voted  to declare the proceedings "constitutional."  Kind of like the votes taken in the parliaments of banana republics.  From Vox: 

Senate Republicans, in a Tuesday vote on the constitutionality of the impeachment trial, have signaled once again that they’re unlikely to convict former President Donald Trump.

Although the Senate overall voted 56-44 that the trial was constitutional, just six Republicans agreed, indicating that most of the GOP conference favored ending the proceedings. This vote followed hours of presentations by House impeachment managers and defense counsel explaining their cases for and against the Senate’s jurisdiction over Trump’s impeachment.

Ultimately, most Republicans signaled agreement with the defense’s team’s argument, leading to a vote breakdown that was similar to that of another vote that took place in late January, when senators also weighed the constitutionality of the trial. In that vote, five Republican lawmakers supported moving ahead with the trial, while 45 of their colleagues disagreed.

The Republicans who joined Democrats to vote in support of the trial both in January and on Tuesday are Sens. Mitt Romney (UT), Susan Collins (ME), Lisa Murkowski (AK), Ben Sasse (NE), and Pat Toomey (PA). Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) voted against the trial in January, but joined these five in voting for its constitutionality Tuesday.

Bill Cassidy told @tedbarrettcnn it was a “very good opening” by the House managers and made “very good arguments” on Constitutional question

Republicans have largely said they intend to listen to the evidence for and against impeachment before making up their minds on whether to convict Trump. However, their votes on the constitutionality of the trial effectively serve as a proxy for how they are currently leaning — suggesting that the majority of the conference will probably vote to acquit.

According to a count by the New York Times, nine other Republican lawmakers — in addition to the five who voted for the trial’s constitutionality in late January — have yet to announce their position on conviction, meaning the other 36 have already pretty much settled on acquittal.

Given this dynamic, and Tuesday’s vote, the Senate is expected to fall far short of the 67-member threshold needed to convict Trump of impeachment, since 17 Republicans would have to join Democrats to do so.

COMMENT:  He should be acquitted fairly easily, but the Democrats apparently won't stop.  Should Trump be cleared, they apparently plan to introduce a resolution to censure him, and will try to make it stick in such a way that he cannot run for office again.  I have no idea how this can be done legally in the grown-up world.

February 9, 2021